A compact reference for the notation, distributions, and identities used throughout the book.

Notation

Symbol Meaning
\(\Omega,\ A,\ A^c\) sample space, event, complement
\(P(A),\ P(A\given B)\) probability, conditional probability
\(X,\ p(x),\ f(x),\ F(x)\) random variable, PMF, PDF, CDF
\(\E[X],\ \Var[X],\ \sigma\) expectation, variance, standard deviation
\(\Cov(X,Y),\ \Corr(X,Y)\) covariance, correlation
\(\boldsymbol\mu,\ \boldsymbol\Sigma\) mean vector, covariance matrix
\(\Normal(\mu,\sigma^2)\) normal (Gaussian) distribution
\(\hat\theta,\ L(\theta)\) estimator, likelihood
\(p(\theta\given\Ldata)\) posterior distribution
\(\Hentropy(p),\ \KL(p\|q),\ \MI(X;Y)\) entropy, KL divergence, mutual information
\(X\indep Y\) independence

Core identities

\[P(A\cup B)=P(A)+P(B)-P(A\cap B),\qquad P(A\given B)=\frac{P(A\cap B)}{P(B)}.\] \[\textbf{Bayes: }\ P(H\given E)=\frac{P(E\given H)P(H)}{P(E)},\qquad \textbf{Total prob.: }\ P(E)=\sum_i P(E\given H_i)P(H_i).\] \[\E[aX+bY]=a\E[X]+b\E[Y],\qquad \Var[X]=\E[X^2]-\E[X]^2,\] \[\Var[aX+b]=a^2\Var[X],\qquad \Cov(X,Y)=\E[XY]-\E[X]\E[Y].\] \[\textbf{LLN: }\ \bar X_n\to\mu,\qquad \textbf{CLT: }\ \frac{\bar X_n-\mu}{\sigma/\sqrt n}\to\Normal(0,1).\]

Distribution reference

Distribution PMF/PDF Mean Variance Use
\(\Bern(p)\) \(p^x(1-p)^{1-x}\) \(p\) \(p(1-p)\) binary label
\(\Binom(n,p)\) \(\binom nk p^k(1-p)^{n-k}\) \(np\) \(np(1-p)\) success counts
\(\Pois(\lambda)\) \(\frac{\lambda^k e^{-\lambda}}{k!}\) \(\lambda\) \(\lambda\) rare events
\(\Unif(a,b)\) \(\frac{1}{b-a}\) \(\frac{a+b}{2}\) \(\frac{(b-a)^2}{12}\) RNG, priors
\(\Expo(\lambda)\) \(\lambda e^{-\lambda x}\) \(1/\lambda\) \(1/\lambda^2\) waiting time
\(\Normal(\mu,\sigma^2)\) \(\frac{1}{\sigma\sqrt{2\pi}}e^{-\frac{(x-\mu)^2}{2\sigma^2}}\) \(\mu\) \(\sigma^2\) noise, CLT
\(\Betad(\alpha,\beta)\) \(\propto x^{\alpha-1}(1-x)^{\beta-1}\) \(\frac{\alpha}{\alpha+\beta}\) rate prior

Inference & information cheat-sheet

\[\hat\theta_{\text{MLE}}=\argmax_\theta\sum_i\log p(x_i\given\theta),\qquad \hat\theta_{\text{MAP}}=\argmax_\theta\Big[\sum_i\log p(x_i\given\theta)+\log p(\theta)\Big].\] \[\text{L2 / weight decay}\ \equiv\ \text{Gaussian prior},\qquad \text{L1 / lasso}\ \equiv\ \text{Laplace prior}.\] \[\MSE(\hat\theta)=\Bias(\hat\theta)^2+\Var(\hat\theta),\qquad \text{95\% CI (mean): }\ \bar X\pm 1.96\,\frac{s}{\sqrt n}.\] \[\Hentropy(p)=-\!\sum p\log p,\quad \Hentropy(p,q)=-\!\sum p\log q,\quad \KL(p\|q)=\Hentropy(p,q)-\Hentropy(p)\ge0.\] \[\text{minimize cross-entropy}\ \Longleftrightarrow\ \text{maximize likelihood}\ \Longleftrightarrow\ \text{minimize }\KL(p\,\|\,q).\]

Minimal NumPy / SciPy reference

Task Call
sample / pdf / cdf
mean, var, std , ,
covariance / correlation ,
multivariate normal
\(t\)-test / \(\chi^2\) test ,
fit by MLE (optimize NLL)
bootstrap CI resample with

End of book. Probability says what to expect; statistics says what to believe.